Predictions for 2022 Independent Spirit Awards
On Sunday, March 6, the 2022 Film Independent Spirit Awards will announce their winners during an in-person ceremony that will air on IFC. Moving from its original position of the Saturday before the Oscars, the ceremony, which went virtual last year because of COVID-19, will now be in-person and have a ceremony a bit earlier during awards season. Recognizing the best that the indie film world has to offer, the Indie Spirits did a good job nominating a wide variety of films and artists from a range of backgrounds.
Of all the nominated writers and directors, 44% are women and 38% are BIPOC. Of all nominated actors, 60% are BIPOC. And of all 2022 nominees, 46% are women and 32% are BIPOC. The indie film world has long done a better job at giving opportunities to underrepresented communities than major studios, so it’s nice to see those efforts quantified through these competitive film nominations. So without further ado, let’s take a look at some predictions for the 37th Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards.
FILM Awards
BEST FEATURE (Award given to the producer. Executive Producers are not awarded.)
A Chiara - Jonas Carpignano, Paolo Carpignano, Jon Coplon, Ryan Zacarias
C’mon C’mon - Chelsea Barnard, Andrea Longacre-White, Lila Yacoub
The Lost Daughter - Charles Dorfman, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Osnat Handelsman Keren, Talia Kleinhendler
The Novice - Ryan Hawkins, Kari Hollend, Steven Sims, Zack Zucker
Zola - Kara Baker, Dave Franco, Elizabeth Haggard, David Hinojosa, Vince Jolivette, Christine Vachon, Gia Walsh
A still from The Lost Daughter. Courtesy of Netflix
Janicza Bravo’s Zola led the way in terms of nominations with seven, but The Lost Daughter is still the clear favorite to win here. In the past ten years, the winner of Best Feature at the Indie Spirits and the winner of Best Picture at the Oscars have lined up five times. Notably, none of the frontrunners for this year’s Oscars were eligible for nomination here so that leaves The Lost Daughter, which made its own run for a Best Picture nomination, with an almost slam dunk win here. Other tough competition will come from Mike Mill’s C’mon C’mon, which scored nominations for screenplay and direction as well, but this is very much The Lost Daughter’s race to lose.
BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to director and producer)
7 Days (Director: Roshan Sethi; Producers: Liz Cardenas, Mel Eslyn)
Holler (Director: Nicole Riegel; Producers: Adam Cobb, Rachel Gould, Katie Mcneill, Jamie Patricof, Christy Spitzer Thornton)
Queen of Glory (Director: Nana Mensah; Producers: Baff Akoto, Anya Migdal, Kelley Robins Hicks, Jamund Washington)
Test Pattern (Director/Producer: Shatara Michelle Ford Producers: Pin-Chun Liu, Yu-Hao Su)
Wild Indian (Director/Producer: Lyle Mitchell Corbine, Jr.; Producers: Thomas Mahoney, Eric Tavitian)
A still from Test Pattern. Courtesy of Kino Lorber
Notably, Gyllenhaal is not nominated in this category which allows for much more competition between the films that were. As of right now, this is a two-horse race between Shatara Michelle Ford’s Test Pattern and Lyle Mitchell Corbine, Jr.’s Wild Indian. After being a hit at Sundance Wild Indian nabbed four Indie Spirit nominations. Test Pattern’s audacious premise has gotten it a bit more attention, so the result is a matter of which direction the Spirits are going to lean. For my money, they’ll give it to Test Pattern.
BEST DIRECTOR
Janicza Bravo (Zola)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Lauren Hadaway (The Novice)
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon)
Ninja Thyberg (Pleasure)
A still from Zola. Courtesy of A24
Logically, if Maggie Gyllenhaal is the favorite to win Best Feature, then there’s a good chance she could win Best Director as well. However, I am actually going to give this one to Janicza Bravo for Zola. The film is more structured to highlight the experimental directing choices Bravo goes for and the Indie Spirits have shown an inclination to want to spread the wealth in the past. Just like Best Feature, this is one that Mike Mills could sneak out without too much surprise, but expect the award to go to Bravo.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Nikole Beckwith (Together Together)
Janicza Bravo, Jeremy O. Harris (Zola)
Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Lost Daughter)
Mike Mills (C’mon C’mon)
Todd Stephens (Swan Song)
A still from C’mon C’mon. Courtesy of A24
The Indie Spirits don’t separate original and adapted screenplay like the Oscars so that pins Brave, Gyllenhaal, and Mills against one another for the third time. This time though, Mike Mills should finally win out. His screenplay for C’mon C’mon is wonderfully layered and tender, something he has successfully done in the past too with his work on 20th Century Women and Beginners. Gyllenhaal may have gotten the Oscar nomination for her adaptation of Elena Ferrante’s novel, but a Mike Mills script is hard to beat.
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Lyle Mitchell Corbine, Jr. (Wild Indian)
Matt Fifer; Story by Sheldon D. Brown (Cicada)
Shatara Michelle Ford (Test Pattern)
Fran Kranz (Mass)
Michael Sarnoski; Story by Vanessa Block, Michael Sarnoski (Pig)
A still from Mass. Courtesy of Bleecker Street
Even though Wild Indian and Test Pattern were the two front-runners for First Feature, Fran Franz’s work on Mass is undeniable. A small chamber piece that is completely reliant on its cast and script, Mass is also the winner of the Robert Altman Award at the Indie Spirits which recognizes a director, casting director, and ensemble cast. Michael Sarnoski and Vanessa Block’s Pig is a crowd favorite which a splendid script that could make a run for the award, but expect Mass to win this one.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Ante Cheng, Matthew Chuang (Blue Bayou)
Lol Crawley (The Humans)
Tim Curtin (A Chiara)
Edu Grau (Passing)
Ari Wegner (Zola)
A still from Passing. Courtesy of Netflix
Ari Wegner is likely going to win the Best Cinematography Oscar for her work on The Power of the Dog, and while she does great work on Zola as well, Edu Grau’s work on Passing is too phenomenal to ignore. Beyond the gorgeous black and white photography, Grau’s camera is essential to deepening the thematic resonance of the film. Grau may not be the far-and-away frontrunner for the category, but it’s safe to say he is leading the pack.
BEST EDITING
Affonso Gonçalves (A Chiara)
Ali Greer (The Nowhere Inn)
Lauren Hadaway, Nathan Nugent (The Novice)
Joi McMillon (Zola)
Enrico Natale (The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain)
A still from Zola. Courtesy of A24
The first film to score a second win in these predictions goes to Zola. Like it’s direction, the Joi McMillon’s editing for the film is too striking to not take notice of it. Affonso Gonçalves is nominated here for A Chiara but he also did excellent work on The Lost Daughter which could have fans of that film voting for him here, but Zola should have this one in the bag.
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Isabelle Fuhrman (The Novice)
Brittany S. Hall (Test Pattern)
Patti Harrison (Together Together)
Taylour Paige (Zola)
Kali Reis (Catch the Fair One)
A still from The Novice. Courtesy of IFC Films
Isabelle Fuhrman in The Novice is one of those performances that flew completely under the radar prior to its nomination. But once the film got more exposure and more eyes got to see her performance, they saw how worthy of a nominee she was. Any of the other performances are worthy in their own right, and since Olivia Colman wasn’t nominated in the category, the category should plenty competitive. Still, expect Isabelle Fuhrman to pull this one out.
BEST MALE LEAD
Clifton Collins Jr. (Jockey)
Frankie Faison (The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain
Michael Greyeyes (Wild Indian)
Udo Kier (Swan Song)
Simon Rex (Red Rocket)
A still from Red Rocket. Courtesy of A24
Sean Baker’s Red Rocket was snubbed from many categories and ended up landing only two nominations for performances in the film. Simon Rex is electric as the film’s protagonist and should end up winning this award. His toughest competition will be Clifton Collins Jr. in Jockey in another movie that was only recognized for its performances. Rex and Collins Jr. were both close to Oscar nominations for their performance so the winner here is close to a toss-up but is slightly weighted towards Rex.
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Amy Forsyth (The Novice)
Ruth Negga (Passing)
Revika Reustle (Pleasure)
Suzanna Son (Red Rocket)
A still from Passing. Courtesy of Netflix
Another very clear two-horse race is here for Best Supporting Actress. Jessie Buckley nabbed a surprise Oscar nomination but Ruth Negga has been a critical darling all season long. In the long run, the Oscar nomination could actually end up hurting Buckley at the Spirits as they aren’t going to feel the need to celebrate someone who is going to be getting a bigger celebration weeks later. That on top of Negga’s Oscar snub igniting a renewal for love for her performance should end up with her winning.
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Colman Domingo (Zola)
Meeko Gattuso (Queen of Glory)
Troy Kotsur (CODA)
Will Patton (Sweet Thing)
Chaske Spencer (Wild Indian)
A still from CODA. Courtesy of Apple TV+
The funny thing is this is going to be the exact opposite of the last category. So maybe the hypocrisy is on me, but the way I see it, Troy Kotsur being the new frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar is just going to get people more excited to vote for him for the Spirits. And that’s great. His performance is terrific. Colman Domingo’s performance certainly has its fans so expect him to put up fierce competition, but Kotsur should still be able to handily pull this one out.
BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
Ascension (Director/Producer: Jessica Kingdon; Producers: Kira Simon-Kennedy, Nathan Truesdell)
Flee (Director: Jonas Poher Rasmussen; Producers: Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen)
In the Same Breath (Director/Producer: Nanfu Wang Producers: Christopher Clements, Julie Goldman, Carolyn Hepburn, Jialing Zhang)
Procession (Director: Robert Greene Producers: Susan Bedusa, Bennett Elliott, Douglas Tirola)
Summer Of Soul (…Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Director: Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson; Producers: David Dinerstein, Robert Fyvolent, Joseph Patel)
A still from Flee. Courtesy of Neon
After winning the top prize at the Cinema Eye Honors, Flee should be in a strong position to repeat that success here. The film managed to snag three Oscar nominations as well which is historic for an animated foreign documentary. Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson should put up a good fight as it did at the Cinema Eye Honors and all the other and all of the other nominees would certainly be worthy winners too, but this is definitely Flee’s race to lose.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
Compartment No. 6 (Finland/Russia; dir. Juho Kuosmanen)
Drive My Car (Japan; dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi)
Parallel Mothers (Spain; dir. Pedro Almodóvar)
Pebbles (India; dir. P S Vinothraj)
Petite Maman (France; dir. Céline Sciamma)
Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico; dir. Tatiana Huezo)
A still from Drive My Car. Courtesy of Janus Films
This is probably the easiest race to call. Drive My Car has been seeing Parasite or Roma levels of success for a foreign film this season, and it even managed to sneak out some extra surprise Oscar nominations. The fascinating fact is that Drive My Car is the only nominee here to also be nominated for the Oscar. In that regard, any of the other films could be the craziest spoiler of the night. Pedro Almodóvar and Céline Sciamma definitely have their following, but neither are going to be a match for the Hamaguchi wave that has been flooding the awards season.
You can find all the television nominees and the already announced special award recipients here.