Predictions for 2022 Gotham Independent Film Awards

On Monday, November 28, the 2022 Gotham Film Independent Film Awards will announce their winners during an in-person ceremony at Cipriani Wall Street. As the first major awards ceremony of the fall season, the Gotham Awards provide critical early recognition and media attention to worthy independent films and series and their writers, directors, producers, and actors. It gives films that have little to no awards campaign budget a spotlight for the major awards voters in Spring 2023 and many critics organizations. Some of these nominated films tend to be artist-driven and go against conventional filmmaking that the Oscars recognize. So without further ado, let’s take a look at the predictions for the 32nd Gotham Independent Film Awards’ competitive film awards.

Best Feature

Aftersun - Charlotte Wells, director; Adele Romanski, Amy Jackson, Barry Jenkins, Mark Ceryak, producers

The Cathedral - Ricky D’Ambrose, director; Graham Swon, producer

Dos Estaciones - Juan Pablo González, director; Ilana Coleman, Jamie Gonçalves, Bruna Haddad, Makena Buchanan, producers

Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, directors; Joe Russo, Anthony Russo, Mike Larocca, Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang, producers

Tár - Todd Field, director; Alexandra Milchan, Scott Lambert, Todd Field, producers

A still from Aftersun. Courtesy of A24

Each of the five Best Feature nominees paced graciously, which retained my attention to its story ranging from The Cathedral's 88 minutes to Tar's 162 minutes. The one that resonated the most with me is Aftersun for its playfulness with time, the complexity of forming human relations, and healing from psychological trauma. Though Tár might be Aftersun's only obstacle, the Gotham Awards avoids echo chambers from mainstream outlets with passionate, knowledgeable critics that aren't allowed to be AMPAS members. It's expected that The Gotham rewards winners that won't be nominated for the most significant award or anything at the Oscars. Instead, the film's tenderness will make voters think of their memories. 

Best Screenplay

Lena Dunham (Catherine Called Birdy)

Todd Field (Tár)

James Gray (Armageddon Time)

Kogonada (After Yang)

Sarah Polley (Women Talking)

A still from Women Talking. Courtesy of United Artists Releasing

Many things that happen in front of the screen come from the script. It takes a lot of moving pieces to bring it to life. The film that brought so much visuality from page to screen is Women Talking. As the film primarily takes place in one room, Polley's script describes essential lighting, character movement, and arguments that retain the viewer's expectations and thrill of witnessing a horror story within the Mennonite community. Though Oscar contenders Armageddon Time and Tár are in Polley's way, I'm confident that Miriam Toews's novel gave Polley a blueprint of a spellbinding, dark, and caring picture. If Women Talking, After Yang, or Catherine Called Birdy wins, it'll be the second straight year that the award goes to an adapted screenplay after the first 5 of 6 recipients were for original ideas. 

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes - Shaunak Sen, director; Aman Mann, Shaunak Sen, Teddy Leifer producers

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed - Laura Poitras, director; Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, Laura Poitras producers

I Didn’t See You There - Reid Davenport, director; Keith Wilson, producer

The Territory - Alex Pritz, director; Alex Pritz, Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida, Lizzie Gillett, producers

What We Leave Behind - Iliana Sosa, director; Emma D. Miller, Isidore Bethel, producers

A still from All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. Courtesy of Neon and HBO Documentary Films

The nominated documentaries used portraiture styles to convey their participants' expression, determination, and dignity. While each film has its distinctive tone and visuals, my pick is Laura Poitras's All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. Poitras enthrallingly captures acclaimed artist Nan Goldin's drive to pursue her work and how her activism influences the many facets of her life. Though All That Breathes and I Didn't See You There challenge expectations of nature documentaries and disability cinema, respectively, from its first-time nominees, All the Beauty will manage to seal the award as the film shows how politics are inseparable from art. 

Best International Film

Athena - Romain Gavras, director; Romain Gavras, Charles-Marie Anthonioz, Mourad Belkeddar, Jean Duhamel, Nicolas Lhermitte, Ladj Ly, producers

The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh, director; Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin, Martin McDonagh, producers

Corsage - Marie Kreutzer, director; Alexander Glehr, Johanna Scherz, Bernard Michaux, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski, Maren Ade, Jean-Christophe Reymond, producers

Decision to Leave - Park Chan-wook, director and producer

Happening - Audrey Diwan, director; Edouard Weil, Alice Girard producers

Saint Omer - Alice Diop, director; Toufik Ayadi, Christophe Barral, producers

A still from Corsage. Courtesy of IFC Films

Half of this year's nominees are official submissions for the Academy Award for Best International Feature (Corsage, Decision to Leave, and Saint Omer). They all represent the power of storytelling and reliance on the moving image. My pick for Best International Film is Corsage. Marie Kreutzer spotlights Empress Elizabeth in a character-driven approach that doesn't glamorize royalty and inhibits the psychological tensions within Elizabeth's interiority. It has one of the year's best performances from Vicky Krieps, as her dilemma is captured beautifully while she leads Austria and argues with her spouse Franz. It's an unpredictable film with constantly changing uncertainty, making it a case to triumph over the other five nominees.

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award

Beth De Araújo (Soft & Quiet)

Elegance Bratton (The Inspection)

Owen Kline (Funny Pages)

Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic (Murina)

Jane Schoenbrun (We’re All Going to the World’s Fair)

Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)

A still from The Inspection. Courtesy of A24

All six nominees shared personal yet bold, distinctive palettes in their breakthrough films and led the herd to reach their final destination. However, the film that took away my heart in this cohort is The Inspection. Elegance Bratton lets audiences heal, see and feel empowered in his debut narrative feature. He presents each male character with their meaning of manhood, their purpose in participating in the Marines, and why Inez French (Gabrielle Union) has a complicated love with her queer son Ellis (Jeremy Pope). While I also expect Jane Schoenbrun and Charlotte Wells to win for their use of camera devices in their respective films, Elegance Bratton's use of film as a visual biography gives him a shot at winning the award.

Breakthrough Performer

Anna Cobb (We’re All Going to the World’s Fair)

Frankie Coiro (Aftersun)

Anna Diop (Nanny)

Gracie Flipovic (Murina)

Kali Reis (Catch the Fair One)

A still from Nanny. Courtesy of Amazon Studios and Blumhouse

Four out of five this year's nominees (all consisting of female actors) made their acting debut in a feature film. While appreciating the actor's search for their character's differences and similarities, and their openness to be vulnerable, curious, and strong, my pick will go to the lone veteran Anna Diop in the supernatural Nanny. Diop gives a gripping performance as Aisha, an undocumented Senegalese immigrant bringing her child to the US. She lets the environment breathe and adapts to how Aisha transitions from reality to fantasy and land to water. While comparing debut/breakthrough performances is hard, don't be surprised if you see child actors Frankie Coiro and Anna Cobb taking home the award. Their wisdom, fears, and interrogative objectives to the story give them a good shot at winning the award. All the nominees gave it their all, and I expect them to continue being stars in the foreseeable future.

Outstanding Lead Performance

Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Danielle Deadwyler (Till)

Dale Dickey (A Love Song)

Colin Farrell (After Yang)

Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

Thandiwe Newton (God’s Country)

Aubrey Plaza (Emily the Criminal)

Taylor Russell (Bones and All)

Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

A still from Aftersun. Courtesy of A24

Each of the nominees in this category embodies their characters' goals, obstacles, and desires. Despite their star status, they made us believe that it was someone else and told the story through their observations of the world they live in. With that said, my prediction for this award is Paul Mescal. In Aftersun, Mescal presented a different view of fatherhood as Calum by manifesting a complicated love for his daughter Sophie. He gives Sophie the happiest time on their trip to Turkey while he's suffering from his financial troubles. He does everything he can to keep her satisfied while he heals from his inner wounds outside of her presence and balances tenderness and heartbreak. Though Cate Blanchett, Brandan Fraser, and Danielle Deadwyler are heavier favorites to win the award for their courageous roles, it's safe to predict Mescal. He does everything he can to find commonalities while loving a daughter he doesn't know as well.

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Raúl Castillo (The Inspection)

Hong Chau (The Whale)

Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Nina Hoss (Tár)

Noémie Merlant (Tár)

Mark Rylance (Bones and All)

Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)

A still from The Inspection. Courtesy of A24

It takes an ensemble of foils to complement the leading actor. They challenge the protagonist's purpose and contribute a perspective that the lead did not consider. Sometimes, they only need a little screen time to communicate their message. Gabrielle Union (The Inspection) is this year's foil that bounces off the lead's arc. In just one appearance per act, Union takes over the screen when she gives a compelling performance as Elegance Bratton's on-screen, homophobic mother. Her commitment to her role made me sometimes forget her real-life stance on LGBTQ+ rights and brought a 1-to-2 punch to Jeremy Pope's attempts to gain her approval. While I also see Ben Whishaw, Ke Huy Quan, and Nina Hoss contesting Union, Union dived into dark territories. She shared her opposite self on the screen to be formally recognized as an actor after being in more light-hearted, non-arthouse works like Bring It On.

You can find all the television nominees and the already announced special award recipients here.